Archive for November, 2009

Week of November 23, 2009. Consumer Confidence.

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Because consumer spending drives two thirds of the US economy, consumer confidence, sentiment and expectations have the ability to move stock and bond prices and are use to predict economic growth. They tend to be leading indicators, meaning they improve before the economy turns around.

Together, my students are a good sample of the college population in the state of Massachusetts. By analyzing how you and your family feel about the economy, we may be able to predict whether the Massachusetts economy will improve, stay the same, or worsen over the next few months. So, let’s try a little experiment this week!

How do you and your family feel about the Massachusetts economy today. Do you feel the economy is growing? Do you think the employment situation is improving? Are you planning on spending more this holiday season than you spent last year? Do you have more access to credit than you had last year?

I will let you know the results next week.

Week of November 16, 2009. “As Seen On TV”.

Monday, November 16th, 2009

As demand for on-demand/commercial-free media on TV sets or PDA devices continues to grow, advertisers face a new challenge: keeping consumers tuned in to infomercials. If you turn on your television set on Saturday morning, you are likely to find multiple infomercials running simultaneously by several TV broadcasters. But if you have access to cable TV or HULU, or if you download an application to watch TV on your PDA device, you can easily find commercial-free content anywhere 24/7/365.

How can advertisers overcome this challenge? How can they keep consumers tuned in when consumers have control over content? Can you think of specific examples? You may find many examples of infomercials on YouTube under key phrase “As Seen On TV”.

Week of November 2nd, 2009. What is going on in Detroit?

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

A strong US Dollar should be a priority for US monetary and fiscal authorities. If the US dollar continues to lose ground against other major currencies, investing in US assets become less desirable to foreign investors. Because of the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, as the deficit grows, the availability of US treasury securities increases, bond prices decline and interest rates rise leading to inflation. And as we all know, inflation reduces the value of real assets.

To think that the US dollar volatility can be ignored because foreign investors have too much to lose to allow the collapse of the dollar seems shortsighted. Foreign investors such as China are stocking commodity inventories and could over time significantly reduce their exposure to the US dollar. Such actions would indicate lack of confidence in the US dollar.

On a different note, Ford Motors Co. reported earnings on Monday along with some promising forecasts. As you read the press release, think about the actions Ford Motor Company has taken over the last year. What are the key factors that differentiate Ford’s turnaround strategy from GM’s?